Gold Trade

If there is one thing I know, it’s that never hold your long position if the market reacts adversely to bullish news.
Let’s take out our remaining long position on gold, with a small loss at 1286.80, the current level, and call it a day for now.

Oil Trade November 27

Probably want to get out of WTI oil, Friday’s move up was due to disruption at Cushing, storage hub of WTI oil.
Let’s wait for a regular dip buy pattern.

Could be a really good long at around $50.

So, let’s take out our longs here at 58.50, and wait for a safer buy.

Oil Trade November 22

WTI Oil has been in a very healthy uptrend.
The Brent-WTI spread is trading around -5.00, and historically speaking this is a little low for the spread, considering the strength that WTI is showing at the moment.

Today's strength in WTI has been partially on the basis of the bullish crude inventories to which oil has reacted very healthily.

I think the move up is not something we would want to miss completely.

If your full size in a single market is 4, enter 1 lot long here in WTI, 25% of what you would consider as full size in a single market. The price being 58.00 .

We would not want to miss the long position completely, even if we are entering a little above the ideal range of 55-56.00, I think the price is good enough, since it has given an indication of strength as well.

We will not average below this price. Target is around 62-65.00

Trade Execution – Gold Trade

Tomorrow, we will be looking to scratch 50% of the position that we had entered. That is 25% of the capital that we had invested in total.

Why? Because the timing was not perfect, and the price is at the top of the range it has made recently.
Still hold, 25% so as not to miss the move up, if it happens, but there is no point staying so committed to the trade, since it was clearly not as bullish as we had perceived it earlier, right now.

Can look to dip buy with the next 25%, and improve the net price of the trade.
I think, I'd rather but 25% at 1290.00 today if it gives that price. Otherwise hold.

Trade Execution – Gold longs

Never double your position when it's losing.
One of the golden rules of trade execution, unless you predicted the market spot on, and this was part of your plan.

What happened in gold today, was not part of the plan.
Remember, we make money on our trade execution, not on predicting if the market is going to go up or down.

In hindsight, we could have always chosen a better entry point. But, trades are not done in hindsight.

The market is still in the higher high/ higher low pattern. It has not yet come to a point where it would trigger our stops, but it's close. If it breaks the previous swing low, some shorts with 50% of our capital, could be taken.

Right now, just sit and watch. Sit and watch.
It's trading pretty close to where we would want to book losses. 1276.00, cut losses around 1270.00, and attempt shorts around 1265.00

It's nowhere near bullish enough as I first thought it to be for sure, else it would have broken the previous daily high at least, in a short time. So even if it goes back up, we will try and reduce our long exposure, and not build further long position.

Trade Execution

Alright, now here is the secret sauce.
Any one can predict if the market would go up or down.
But, you actually got to trade on it.

So you'll have to come up with an execution method.
Buy half your longs here, where the market is currently as of Nov 19, 2017.
Wait for the market to react.

Where are your stops going to be? Obviously below the last minimum.
Make it the higher high/lower low pattern minimum that you had seen earlier.
But note that that's where everyone's stops are going to be as well.
This was a very expected move.

If the market goes there, you can cut your longs and try and go short, and then long again.(decision made at that time, not now).

If the market goes up, you got to wait for a dip to get your other half of the money in.
The first half was put, so we do not miss the move.

So far, with what we know. We can come up with such execution plans in very short span of time.

It should take a pretty big dollar up move, to cause gold to fall completely down from here.
If it's bullish, it should at least break yesterday's high in a short time.

Call of the week – Long Gold Nov 19 2017

Gold has closed comfortably above it's previous range.
The dollar is unlikely to get much more bullish at this point, and a sell down below could trigger a good rally in gold prices.

With the political environment uncertain back home in the USA, and tensions over North Korea on the brink of eruption, I think Gold is a solid long call at this point.

Gold has also shown a good higher high/ lower low pattern.

With any trade timing is of the essence. Now is the right time to invest in gold, given that equities seem to have found a range and soft ceiling on the up side as well.

You might take some hedge in silver, if you wish to be cautious.

I am also assuming that you can take care of the entry/exit points. That thing isn't very hard, just by looking at the charts.

Ron Skeet and the Band

It had almost been an year since Skeet had formed his band with his pals. As these things go, success was really hard to get in such a span of time. Faith had begun shaking in the band, and members departed to pursue safer ambitions.

The past two months, Skeet had grown desperate. Not that he was a bad drummer, no, that was not the issue. The band had yet to find their sound. They could hear the music, yes, but seeing it was still a long way off. Skeet wanted success, and quickly. He had to, his resources were running thin, the cash was skimming off, and this was something he really wanted to succeed at.

Something had happened last night. Skeet could barely remember all the details. A crimson sun had risen that day. All that Skeet could remember was that he had sold his soul. To whom and how? Those were the questions he found hard to answer. Well, never mind, he thought, it’s not like he believed in such things anyways. It was hard to. He took his sticks and went down to practice. Something had changed. He could not place his finger on it, but something had changed from last night. Blood rushed to his head, his veins pulsated with energy. He could see the music. He could finally see it, he had finally found his sound. He practiced for hours and hours, eventually getting lost in the music.

The band found success slowly, but surely. Every cafe or bar they played at, they got noticed. It was hard not to, their sound was different, new, energetic and reflected with the people. They had it.
It didn’t take Skeet long to skyrocket to stardom. But, something had begun to change in Skeet. He found that, slowly, but surely, he could no longer feel the music. It was all he had in the world. Earlier, he had played for himself, but now he played for the crowd or crows as he called them. He could still see the music, but no longer feel it. It gave him no joy. He hated it, and loved it.

Skeet had sold his soul, and only God knew to whom and how.

The Doors of Stone

While Patrick Rothfuss's third novel in the series, "The Kingkiller Chronicle", is still some time away, all that we readers can do in the meanwhile is speculate on the outcome of the third novel.

Rumor has it that Rothfuss had finished his novel and submitted to the editor, but it was returned back, so that he could make it better. He is re-writing it as of now.

As you all might remember the main villain in the story so far, seems to be The Cthaeh.
It is an omniscience being who can see all the possible paths in the future, and manipulate those who talk to it, into doing malicious and terrible things.
How do you beat an omniscience being?

I think you cannot. This particular god damn tree is responsible for all of misfortunes in Kvothe's life.
And yet, the only way that the book can have an ending is (or a happy one at that), is that Kvothe somehow manages to handle this threat.

The only way to beat an omniscience being is to hold them to a draw.

I think that is what is going to happen in the doors of stone. Kvothe will find a way, with or without his powers to hold The Cthaeh to a draw.

It is certainly going to be very interesting how the events in the third book will turn out. So far, it is anybody's guess.